Since Hurricane Katrina, America’s hurricane forecasts have become faster, sharper, and better at saving lives, improving by roughly 50%. But the engine behind those gains–the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)’s integrated system of research labs, observing networks, cooperative institutes, supercomputing, and operations–faces dramatic proposed budget cuts that would slow or even reverse progress right as we’re in the midst of a predicted worse-than-normal hurricane season. Last Friday, August 29 marked the 20-year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina’s landfall in Louisiana.
“NOAA saves lives. Period.” said Jeff Watters, Vice President of External Affairs at Ocean Conservancy. “We warn earlier and with greater certainty – so families can get out, utilities can pre-stage, and communities can save lives and billions in damage. That only happens when NOAA’s entire system – research labs, satellites, aircraft, buoys, ocean data, supercomputers and forecasting teams–fires on all cylinders. Cut any link in that chain and you weaken the whole and put people at risk.”
What’s at risk right now: Congress is considering budget cuts proposed by the Administration that would hit NOAA’s end-to-end forecasting system–slashing or eliminating research (Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, or OAR), observational networks (satellites, buoys, ocean gliders, ocean observing systems, aircraft), high-performance computing, and data assimilation.
“Forecasting is like a relay race,” said Amanda Carter, Ocean Conservancy’s Director of Climate Science. “If any leg stumbles, the result is slower, less accurate warnings and higher costs for evacuations, insurance and recovery. We’re encouraged that the initial NOAA budget proposals from both the House and Senate keep NOAA’s Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) on the field. But we need to fully fund every component – ocean observing systems, research labs, satellites, and supercomputing – so there’s no disruption to the public service Americans depend on during peak hurricane months.”
Watters added: “Hurricane Katrina took nearly 2,000 lives and caused over $100 billion in damage. We learned hard lessons and built world-class forecasting as a result. Cutting those systems now – on the 20th anniversary and at the height of hurricane season – would be reckless. Keep NOAA strong, end-to-end.”
Proof that better forecasts pay off
- ~50% overall accuracy improvement since 2005. Americans know earlier and with greater certainty when, where, and how severe storms will be. Estimated savings: ~$5 billion per storm (2020 vs. 2005) thanks in part to tighter evacuation zones.
- In just the last three years: +8% better track predictions and +10% better intensity predictions.
- 2025 season: an expected 5-7% jump in forecasting rapid intensification (increases of 30 knots in 24 hours) – a critical life-saving window.
How we got here–and why cuts would hurt
- Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) (launched 2007): the R&D backbone advancing physics-based models, ensemble guidance, and data assimilation across NOAA and partners.
- HAFS (Hurricane Analysis and Forecasting System): operational since June 2023, now delivering 7-day guidance on track, intensity, surge, rainfall, and tornado risk, using innovative technology like storm-following nests that render the storms’ internal structure in high detail.
- 2025 upgrades: researchers at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) will test the next leap forward in hurricane forecasting – multi-storm mode capturing how storms interact across vast distances. This will allow scientists to see how tropical storms affect each other even when hundreds or thousands of miles apart.
- This is a system, not a line item: National Weather Service operations, NOAA satellites, research laboratories, cooperative institutes, Hurricane Hunter planes, International Ocean Observing System data, high performance computing, National Data Buoy Center buoys and the National Hurricane Center forecasters all interlock. Break one link, and our whole forecast system weakens.
