XCF Global, Inc., a key player in decarbonizing the aviation industry through Sustainable Aviation Fuel (“SAF”), today shared its perspective on the rapidly evolving global policy landscape shaping the adoption of sustainable aviation fuel.
The scale of the challenge – and opportunity – is immense. According to the International Air Transport Association (“IATA”), airlines will need approximately 165 billion gallons of SAF annually by 2050 to achieve net-zero emissions. In 2024, global SAF production totalled only ~330 million gallons – about 0.3% of total jet-fuel demand. Meeting 2050 decarbonization targets will require an estimated 27% compound annual growth rate in production capacity and the construction of 5,000 – 7,000 new facilities worldwide. This gap represents one of the most compelling growth opportunities in the global energy transition, with analysts projecting the SAF market could exceed ~$25 billion by 2030 and reach ~$270 billion by 2050.
Governments are responding. Across major markets, policymakers are using mandates and incentive schemes to accelerate SAF adoption. Today, more than 2 billion people globally live in countries with SAF blending mandates or strong incentives, such as tax credits – by 2030, this number is expected to grow to more than 4 billion people.
- In the U.S., the SAF Grand Challenge aims to expand domestic consumption of SAF to 3 billion gallons per year by 2030 and 35 billion gallons per year by 2050.
- In Europe, the ReFuelEU Aviation regulation mandates that SAF make up 2% of all jet fuel by 2025, rising to 6% in 2030, 20% by 2035, and 70% by 2050, creating one of the largest mandated clean-fuel markets globally.
- The UK has coupled mandates starting from 2% in 2025 and increasing to 10% in 2030 and 22% in 2040 with revenue-certainty mechanisms that help cover the price premium between SAF and conventional jet fuel.
- Across Asia-Pacific, countries including Australia, China, India, Japan, Korea, and Singapore are developing frameworks that combine blending targets, tax incentives, and infrastructure funding to stimulate both production and demand.
“Global demand for SAF is shifting from ‘if’ to ‘how fast,’” said Mihir Dange, CEO of XCF. “Mandates, incentives, and procurement are converging to drive volume. These dynamics underscore the value of XCF’s early-mover advantage and modular design, which we’re now extending globally through partnerships such as with New Rise Australia, a venture that is expected to develop three SAF sites across the continent to meet Australia’s growing demand for sustainable aviation fuel and renewable diesel.”
XCF highlighted three dynamics that will shape the next phase of growth:
- Diverse toolkits, common direction. Regions may use different policy levers – mandates, subsidies, tax credits, or procurement – but they all point toward accelerating adoption.
- Technology mix evolution. HEFA remains the dominant pathway in the near-term, while policy frameworks are creating headroom for emerging pathways to scale toward 2050 targets.
- System reliability. Airlines and fuel suppliers need dependable volumes, transparent carbon accounting, and logistics that work across borders. Producers with operational capacity and credible expansion plans will lead.
“As SAF adoption transitions from pilot programs to long-term supply, reliability and verifiability become the new currency of trust,” Dange added. “XCF is building the backbone of that transition by advancing the infrastructure and partnerships needed to make SAF the new standard across global aviation.
