In July 2026, prolonged hot and dry conditions in western Europe led to the spread and intensification of extreme wildfires. The month also saw the highest sea surface temperature (SST) ever recorded for July across the extra-polar oceans, partly fuelled by developing El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, as reported by Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).
July saw exceptionally high temperatures for the month across a large portion of the tropical Pacific, an area where El Niño conditions are present and forecast to further strengthen in the coming months. Around Europe, record high SSTs along the Atlantic and western Mediterranean were associated with widespread strong or severe marine heatwaves, affecting coastal communities and ecosystems.
Western Europe experienced its hottest June-July period on record and July saw the third and fourth heatwaves since May, marking an exceptional run of extreme heat this summer. Much of the region also saw the widespread dryness observed in May and June persist and intensify, with exceptionally low rainfall and/or soil moisture reported for France, Spain, parts of Germany and the UK. Across the dry regions, river flows were much lower than average or exceptionally low, with the Seine, Rhine and Danube particularly affected, impacting water supply, irrigation and energy production in several countries.
Globally, the month was the joint second warmest July on record, with an average surface air temperature 1.47°C hotter than the estimated pre-industrial baseline (1850-1900 average).
Samantha Burgess, Strategic Lead for Climate at ECMWF, commented: “July 2026 was the third consecutive month of exceptional heat in western Europe, bringing the combined temperature for June and July to a new record for the region. Persistent high-pressure systems trapped heat over western Europe, the extreme temperatures also amplified widespread drought. As soils dry out, they lose their ability to provide natural cooling, allowing heat to build more readily. This is a clear example of how climate change is intensifying heat extremes, with heat and drought increasingly reinforcing one another.”
Laurence Rouil, Director of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) at ECMWF, added: “Last month saw exceptional wildfire activity across western Europe, in terms of the area burnt and emissions. Climate change is increasingly bringing the kinds of hot and dry conditions that favour large, high-intensity wildfires in southern Europe while extending the fire season northwards. Larger fires produce more smoke and inject it higher into the atmosphere, meaning it can travel further and impact air quality not only locally, but across the wider region. Countries that experience relatively few wildfires may be increasingly impacted by long range transport of smoke, even if they are thousands of kilometres away.”
July 2026 – Surface air temperature and sea surface temperatures highlights
Global surface air temperature
- July 2026 was the joint-second warmest July* globally in the ERA5 dataset, tied with July 2024 and behind the record set in July 2023.
- The average surface air temperature for the month was 16.90°C, 0.67°C above the 1991-2020 average for July and 1.47°C above the estimated pre-industrial 1850-1900 average.
Europe surface air temperature
- The average temperature over European land in July 2026 was the eleventh-highest on record for the month, at 20.49°C, 0.66°C above the 1991-2020 average for the month.
- This relatively low ranking can be explained by a sharp west–east contrast in temperature anomalies. Temperatures were much higher than average in western Europe (particularly in France, Spain, England and Ireland) but lower than average across much of eastern Europe and Scandinavia.
- Western Europe experienced its third and fourth heatwaves since May. Although these were less intense than the heatwaves in June, the overall sequence of heatwaves since May remains exceptional for the region.
- The average temperature for June–July for western Europe was the highest on record, at 21.62°C or 2.79°C above average, surpassing the previous record from 2022 and reflecting the exceptional persistence of heat since the beginning of summer.
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs)
- The average SST for the extra-polar ocean (60°S–60°N) in July 2026 was the highest on record for the month, at 20.96°C, surpassing the previous July record of 20.89°C, which was set in 2023.
- SSTs remained at exceptionally high levels across a large portion of the tropical Pacific, an areawhere current El Niño conditions are forecast to further strengthen in the coming months.
- Around Europe, SSTs reached record highs for July along the Atlantic coast and western Mediterranean, associated with widespread strong or severe marine heatwave conditions.
July 2026 – Hydrological variables highlights
Europe: Areas with drier-than-average conditions
- In July 2026, drier-than average conditions observed in June and partly in May persisted and intensified in much of western Europe and large regions of central Europe, particularly in parts of the Iberian Peninsula, France, Germany, Austria, and Hungary. The UK, Ireland, part of Iceland and the Benelux region (Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg) also saw exceptionally dry conditions in July. National agencies reported exceptional to record deficits for precipitation and/or soil moisture for France, Spain, parts of Germany and the UK.
- Surface soil moisture levels in western Europe in July 2026 were significantly lower than those in July 2022, the last summer with severe drought across western Europe.
- The dry conditions coincided with widespread heatwave conditions across much of western Europe and were conducive to exceptional wildfire activity in western Europe, in terms of burnt area and emissions.
- Other drier-than-average regions included parts of southern Scandinavia and a large area to the east of the Caspian Sea.
- River flows were much lower than average, and in some areas exceptionally low, across much of the dry regions, with the Seine, Rhine and Danube particularly affected. The low flows increased pressure on water supply and irrigation, aquatic ecosystems, river transport and energy production in several countries.
Europe: Areas with wetter-than-average conditions
- Conversely, wetter-than-average conditions were recorded in the Baltic States and Finland, inner Türkiye, Greece, eastern Ukraine and large parts of western Russia, with localised flooding and associated damage.
- Above-average river flow was spatially limited and occurred in scattered areas of northeastern and southern Europe.
Extratropical regions outside Europe
- Outside Europe, parts of northern Canada, central USA, the Maghreb, part of the Horn of Africa, Siberia, south-central Asia, parts of inner China, parts of Argentina, Uruguay and Bolivia were drier than average.
- Parts of the eastern USA and northern Mexico, Alaska and Canada, eastern Russia, Afghanistan, the northern Indian subcontinent, eastern China and Japan, Chile and southern Brazil were wetter than average, with flooding reported, among other regions, in the USA, Chile, Brazil, Afghanistan, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, China, and Taiwan.
July 2026 – Sea ice highlights
- In July 2026, Arctic sea ice extent ranked sixth lowest for the month, with particularly low sea ice cover in the northern Barents Sea around Svalbard and Franz Josef Land.
- Antarctic sea ice extent ranked fifth lowest for July, with below-average sea ice cover in most ocean sectors except the Amundsen Sea.
Footnotes
* July 2026 was marginally cooler than July 2024, by only 0.01°C. Given this small difference, the two months are considered the joint-second warmest Julys on record.
