Sylvera, the independent carbon and commodities data provider, has today released its Carbon Data Snapshot for Q1 2026, revealing that retirements fell 8% on the same period last year. Total retirement value dropped from $309.47 to $290 million.
The shift signals a continued shift away from volumes and towards high-value credits, with the average price paid per credit rising to $5.69 in Q1 2026, up from $5.60 the prior year.
The quality & compliance premium
Investment-grade credits (BBB+) now command an average of $20.10 per credit, whereas B-rated credits sit at $7.80 Combined AA, A, and BBB-rated credits now account for 62% of total rated market value.
The high-rated REDD+ (BBB+) prices have risen for three consecutive quarters to $9.60 in Q1 2026, while low-rated REDD+ is flat at $3.70.
For the first time, CORSIA-eligible credits represent close to 50% of new issuances. Compliance-eligible supply continues to grow, driven by the collapse of out-of-scope legacy renewables and the growth of eligible categories, such as IFM and cookstoves
Core Carbon Principles (CCP) accreditation has grown from under 3% of issuances in 2023, to 18% in Q1 2026. The CCP price premium has more than doubled to $3.83 in the same period.
New supply sources growing
A group of project types has emerged over recent years to form a significant portion of the issuance market in Q1 2026:
- Clean Water projects, which provide clean water while reducing emissions, saw 38× growth since 2021 to 8.2 million credits annually at the end of 2025. This is now the largest subcategory in this emerging group, with consistent annual growth every year.
- Marine and Mangrove Carbon projects, which conserve or restore coastal ecosystems, saw steady growth to 5.3 million credits. High permanence credentials and strong co-benefits are attracting quality-conscious buyers.
- NDAAP: Nitrous oxide (N₂O) destruction at nitric acid plants has grown 17× since 2021 to 6.7 million credits. Verifiable, measurable, broadly CORSIA-aligned.
- Regenerative Agriculture projects, which improve sustainable farming practices, were essentially zero through 2024, then 3.0 million in 2025, annualising at over 5 million in Q1 2026. The fastest rate of change of any subcategory in the dataset.
Allister Furey, CEO, said: “The first three months of the year have seen a fall in volume, but values are holding firm. Carbon credits are increasingly defined by quality, compliance-readiness and methodological rigour. The juncture between investment-grade and legacy supply is a growing reality in the voluntary carbon market.
As 2026 progresses, the central tension is supply. High-quality credits are becoming scarcer. Meanwhile, the authorisation bottleneck under Article 6 means that CORSIA-eligible supply on paper does not yet equal compliant supply in practice.
In the coming months, we should expect to see a tighter supply of deliverable credits, clearer winners emerging across project types and voluntary demand increasingly shaped by compliance market signals.”